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How to Tell If a Worry or Prediction Is Testable

Chris Zhang

Many of us make predictions about ourselves or the future that cannot be proven right or wrong. For example, when someone says, “I’m a worthless person” or “I’ll never succeed,” they’re making statements that are impossible to test. These kinds of thoughts can feel upsetting, but they often aren’t rooted in reality—they are based on feelings, not facts.

On the other hand, some statements can be tested. For example:

  • “I will fail the test.”

  • “It’s going to rain tomorrow.”

  • “No one likes me.”

We can gather information to see if these thoughts are true or false. We can look at our test results, check the weather forecast, or observe how people treat us. Thoughts that can be tested like this are often less overwhelming because we can verify or challenge them with evidence.


 

Why Some Thoughts Can’t Be Tested

Certain negative thoughts and beliefs aren’t testable because they are based on feelings or assumptions rather than facts. These include:

  1. “No matter what I do, I’m worthless.”

  2. “Angels exist.”

  3. “It’s possible I’ll go crazy.”

  4. “I need to know for sure.”

If there’s no way to disprove a statement, it becomes meaningless from a practical perspective. For example, if you believe “I’m worthless” and reject any evidence to the contrary, your belief becomes unshakable—not because it’s true, but because you won’t allow it to be challenged.

Similarly, beliefs about unobservable things, like spirits or angels, can’t be proven true or false. While these beliefs might bring comfort or meaning to some people, they can also make us feel stuck if they lead to untestable worries.


Turning Worries Into Testable Predictions

To feel less overwhelmed by worries, try turning your thoughts into testable predictions. For example:

  • Instead of thinking, “I’ll mess up at the party,” ask yourself: “How will I know if the party goes well?”

  • Identify positive outcomes that would disprove your worry, such as, “If people smile at me, talk to me, or I have fun, then I didn’t mess up.”

  • Write down your predictions and check back later to see if they came true.

This approach can help you realize that your negative predictions might not be as accurate as they feel.


Looking at Past Predictions

If you tend to worry a lot, ask yourself: How many of my past worries actually came true? For example:

  • Have you ever worried that you’d fail a test, only to pass it?

  • Have you predicted you’d embarrass yourself at an event, only to find that it went better than expected?

When we look back, we often notice a pattern: many of our fears were never realized. Understanding this can help you question the accuracy of your current worries.


 

How Psychotherapy Can Help

Psychotherapy provides a safe space to explore your worries and learn tools to challenge unhelpful thought patterns. A therapist can guide you in:

  • Identifying thoughts that are not testable and rephrasing them as testable predictions.

  • Testing negative predictions by collecting real-world evidence. For example, if you think, “No one likes me,” a therapist might encourage you to observe your interactions and look for signs that contradict this belief.

  • Recognizing patterns in past worries and realizing how often your fears didn’t come true.

In therapy, you’ll also learn how to tolerate uncertainty. Many people struggle with the need to be 100% certain about the future. Psychotherapy can help you let go of this demand for certainty and develop confidence in your ability to handle whatever comes your way.


 

Takeaway

When you feel overwhelmed by negative thoughts, ask yourself: “Is this something I can test?” If it’s not, remind yourself that it might not reflect reality. Learning to challenge unhelpful thoughts and make predictions that are grounded in facts can reduce anxiety and help you feel more in control. Psychotherapy offers tools and support to navigate these challenges and build a more balanced, confident mindset.


 

References


Cognitive Therapy Techniques


Pages 275 - 281

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