When dealing with anxiety or depression, it’s common to think in black-and-white terms—believing something will either be a complete disaster or a total success without considering the nuances in between. This all-or-nothing thinking can make it hard to assess how likely something is to happen, and it often magnifies feelings of fear. One effective technique to counteract this is assigning probabilities to your thoughts.
What Is Probability and How Can It Help?
Probability is a way to measure how likely an event is to occur, ranging from 0% (impossible) to 100% (certain). By assigning probabilities to your thoughts, you can get a clearer picture of how realistic your fears are and challenge exaggerated thinking.
How to Estimate Probabilities
Let's break down how you might use this technique in practice:
Identify Your Thought: Start with a specific worry. For example, you might think, "I'm not prepared for my exam."
Assign a Probability: Estimate how likely it is that this thought is true. You might say, "I think there’s a 90% chance I’m not prepared."
Evaluate the Next Step: Consider the next event in the sequence. If you’re not prepared, what’s the likelihood you’ll fail the exam? Maybe you estimate 30%.
Continue the Chain: If you fail the exam, what’s the chance you’ll flunk out of school? Perhaps 2%. And if you flunk out, how likely is it you’ll never find a job? Maybe less than 1%.
Assess the Unlikelihood: Notice how each step in the chain becomes increasingly less probable. This can help you see that the sequence of negative outcomes is quite unlikely.
Homework Assignment
You might be asked to keep track of the probabilities you assign to various events. This can help you recognize patterns in your thinking and identify if you tend to exaggerate the likelihood of negative outcomes. You might also try rating the probabilities of positive outcomes to balance your perspective.
Addressing Common Challenges
Sometimes, it’s hard to continue the sequence because the next thought doesn’t feel believable. Or you might demand certainty, asking, “What if I’m the exception?” It’s important to recognize that absolute certainty is rarely possible. Consider the costs of demanding certainty and whether it’s worth the stress.
Also, people often fear losses more than they value gains. To counter this, you can frame your questions around positive events. For instance, instead of asking about the probability of failing, you could ask about the likelihood of passing the exam or finding a great job.
Guessing the Thought: A Different Approach
Sometimes, it’s tough to pinpoint the exact thought fueling your emotions. When you’re overwhelmed, your feelings might overshadow your thoughts. In these cases, therapists can help by guessing possible thoughts that might match your feelings.
How to Guess Your Thoughts
Describe Your Feelings: Share with your therapist how you feel, like “I feel awful since the breakup.”
Complete the Sentence: Try finishing the sentence, “I feel awful because I think…”
Test Possible Thoughts: Your therapist might suggest possible thoughts, like “I’ll never be happy again.” See if any of these resonate with you.
Validate and Explore: Once you identify a thought, explore it further. For example, if you think “I can’t be happy without [my ex],” discuss why that belief might be affecting you.
Homework Assignment
Keep a record of any unpleasant moods and try to identify or guess the underlying thought. This can help you become more aware of your thought patterns and their impact on your feelings.
Overcoming Obstacles
It’s common to insist that there are no thoughts, just feelings. In these cases, your therapist might guide you to reimagine the situation that triggered your emotions to uncover the thoughts behind them. By connecting your intense feelings to specific thoughts, you can begin to address and challenge them.
Final Thoughts
Both techniques—assigning probabilities and guessing thoughts—can help you better understand and manage your fears. They encourage you to examine how realistic your worries are and provide tools to uncover and challenge underlying beliefs.
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